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New Yorkers will find out who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who governs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a time when Donald Trump has vowed to send armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has matched two very different Democrats against each other. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have major implications for how the Democratic party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the former New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the support of wealthy contributors and corporations.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and promised to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by significant margins in every poll conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

However, Cuomo, who resigned as governor in recent years amid allegations of misconduct, has made it clear he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani releasing a group of criminals.

This represents a rather grubby end to an race that could be critical to the direction that the party, struggling in its response to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

National Implications

If the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be compelled to address a message that has appealed to voters' anger at economic disparity, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least some of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the fresh face has created an excitement within the Democratic ranks arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

However, if Cuomo, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of cautious, uninspiring opposition – a tactic that has angered the party base. A NYC defeat of the progressive's optimistic platform could convince party leaders that the wisest course is to remain in the center – even as polls show the present version of the Democratic party is widely disliked nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Residents of the city seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his readiness to actually get out and meet people in the city has attracted an force of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the ex-leader has resorted to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

Following extensive launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might stick, Cuomo has concentrated on targeting the candidate personally. He has called his rival, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an discussion with a rightwing host, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It reached a nadir recently, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Political Landscape

The line of attack echoes much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to the capital and threatened to take similar action to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who donated to the Republican in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to get the independent into office, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

As far as the his team, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his mayoral bid in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held all the advantages. The classic political insider, he had married a Kennedy and worked in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as the state's leader in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his parent, the former governor, stepped down from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was elected to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Still, the candidate has faced some challenges in recent days, after footage surfaced appearing to show him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the clip, recorded at a DSA gathering in recent years. Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, the candidate seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his response to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd