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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward formula. It commonly functions as a kind of apology. We regret we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the largest turnaround is handed the prize. However, it creates an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent coaching or just the greatest shock.

But this year's competition is distinctly unique. The pool of nominees is exceptionally strong. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with reigning division winners declining and longtime strugglers ascending in unison. During an normal season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in such a wild and entertaining year, he's facing five other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the projected ballot could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to conjure magic out of broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost each decision – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the building with the kind of expectations he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a normal year, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current is not a typical year!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. But Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has excelled at the leadership aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his early public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. But he has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

Following an initial strong start, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year setback caused the team stumbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has regressed after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still