Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Both writes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has got something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
